Analysis Projects 21.1% Increase in DFW Home Prices

It’s no surprise that the Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market is booming, but analysis by home services locating platform Porch found that home prices could see a more than 20% increase next year — the ninth-largest in the country.

Over the past 18 months, home prices across the nation have shot up to levels unseen since the build-up to the 2008 financial crisis. In April 2021, the year-over-year growth of the Case-Shiller Index, the premier metric for housing prices, eclipsed 14.5% for the first time in its history.

Amid such sharp rises in price, housing markets across the country were ablaze this past year. Redfin data revealed the percentage of homes selling above asking price shot up 13 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic levels. More than 60% of buyers were putting offers on houses sight unseen and the number of homes being bought without an inspection nearly doubled compared to the previous year. The message was clear: Buyers knew the real estate market was hot, and they did everything they could to get homes under contract and close the sale.

For those who were shut out of the real estate market because they were outbid or outpriced, things will not likely get better in the next year, according to Zillow. National projections indicate a decisive upward trend in the Zillow Home Value Index, with some metropolitan areas projecting increases that are more than double the national average.

The analysis found that the current median home price in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area is $297,044, compared to the national median of $287,148. Over the next year, home prices are projected to increase by 21.1% in Dallas-Fort Worth. 

Here is a summary of the data for the Dallas-Fort Worth, TX metro area:

  • Forecasted one-year change in home price: +21.1%
  • Previous one-year change in home price: +14.4%
  • Current median home price: $297,044
  • Sale-to-list price ratio: 102%
  • Median household income: $72,265
  • Home price-to-income ratio: 4.11X

For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:

  • Forecasted one-year change in home price: +14.9%
  • Previous one-year change in home price: +13.2%
  • Current median home price: $287,148
  • Sale-to-list price ratio: 102%
  • Median household income: $65,712
  • Home price-to-income ratio: 4.37X

To determine the real estate markets expected to grow the most in the next year, researchers at Porch analyzed data from Zillow, Redfin, and the Census Bureau. Its researchers calculated the forecasted one-year change in home price, previous one-year change in home price, sale-to-list price ratio, and the home price-to-income ratio. To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 residents were included. Additionally, metros were grouped into cohorts based on population size: small (100,000–349,999), midsize (350,000–999,999), and large (1,000,000 or more).

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Porch’s website.

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